1-2-0won-lost-push
Korea, in numbers Three can stand behind.
Records, runs and the temperature at the park. No price, so no pick — and nothing on this page is graded.
Korean professional baseball
The KBO League publishes everything the models need: every club’s record and home record, every club’s runs scored and allowed, and the day’s fixtures with the park each one is played at. A free forecast service gives the temperature at those parks. So the stats and the weather below are real, and they run through the same arithmetic as the card.
What no one publishes for this league is a price we can read. Both of the card’s tests are measured against the market’s own number, and our number is 65% of that market. Without it there is no edge to measure and no pick to make, so this page prints the model on its own and calls it nothing more — exactly as the Japanese page does.
Wed Sep 9 in Korea
4 games still to start, 4 of them in the open air
SSG Landers at Doosan Bears
Jamsil, Seoul6:30 PM KST · Wed 5:30 AM ET- Records
- 52-68-5 at 62-58-4
- Runs, for and against
- 5.0/5.8 · 4.6/4.3
- Model: home to win
- 58%
Bears, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 9.5
5.3 home, 4.2 away
72°F · within a rounding error of the day's average, so no adjustment · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
KT Wiz at Samsung Lions
Daegu Samsung Lions Park6:30 PM KST · Wed 5:30 AM ET- Records
- 70-46-3 at 73-46-3
- Runs, for and against
- 5.5/4.7 · 5.8/4.5
- Model: home to win
- 53%
Lions, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 10.1
5.3 home, 4.8 away
69°F · -0.1 runs vs the board · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
NC Dinos at KIA Tigers
Gwangju-KIA Champions Field6:30 PM KST · Wed 5:30 AM ET- Records
- 55-60-2 at 66-53-2
- Runs, for and against
- 5.1/5.2 · 5.4/4.8
- Model: home to win
- 58%
Tigers, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 10.4
5.6 home, 4.8 away
78°F · +0.1 runs vs the board · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
LG Twins at Hanwha Eagles
Daejeon Hanwha Life Ballpark6:30 PM KST · Wed 5:30 AM ET- Records
- 68-54-1 at 53-65-3
- Runs, for and against
- 5.1/5.1 · 5.9/5.7
- Model: home to win
- 44%
Eagles, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 11.4
5.8 home, 5.7 away
74°F · within a rounding error of the day's average, so no adjustment · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
What the numbers are built on
- Each club’s scoring rate and the runs it allows, from the league’s own team batting and pitching tables, pulled toward the league average by 10 games. This season KBO is scoring 5.09 runs a side a game — a higher-scoring league than either of the other two on this site.
- Home advantage measured in this league rather than borrowed: home clubs are 309-287 this season, which after pulling toward baseball’s usual figure is worth 2.0 points.
- The temperature at each open-air park, worth 0.15 runs per 10°F, and counted only as the difference from the rest of the day’s board. Gocheok Sky Dome is the league’s one sealed park and gets no weather term. Two clubs share Jamsil, and a game played at neither club’s own park gets no reading at all rather than the wrong one. Expect this term to be small here far more often than in America: the whole league fits inside 250 miles, so on most days every park is having the same weather and the difference between them is nothing.
What is missing, and honest
- No price. Nothing here is a pick, nothing here is graded, and none of it touches the record on the card.
- Ties are real. A KBO game can be drawn after twelve innings, so a tie is left out of the win rate exactly as the league’s own standings do — and the run-line arithmetic used elsewhere on this site, which assumes a game cannot end level, is not applied to this league at all.
- No starting pitcher yet. The card charges an MLB starter’s ERA with most of the runs his side allows, and more of it again over the first five innings. KBO announces its starters, but this page does not read them yet, so a club’s whole staff carries the number.
- No wind. The forecast service does carry it, and it matters more than temperature. Until it is modelled for every league at once, it is modelled for none.
A note on the clock. Korea plays at half past six in the evening, which is half past five in the morning in New York — hours before the day’s card is posted at 11:05 AM ET. So a Korean pick could never be posted on the morning of the game the way an American one is; it would have to go up the afternoon before.
