1-2-0won-lost-push
Japan, in numbers Three can stand behind.
Records, runs and the temperature at the park. No price, so no pick — and nothing on this page is graded.
Japanese professional baseball
Nippon Professional Baseball publishes everything the models need: every club’s record, every club’s runs scored and allowed, and the day’s fixtures with the park each one is played at. A free forecast service gives the temperature at those parks. So the stats and the weather below are real, and they run through the same arithmetic as the card.
What no one publishes for this league is a price we can read. Both of the card’s tests are measured against the market’s own number, and our number is 65% of that market. Without it there is no edge to measure and no pick to make, so this page prints the model on its own and calls it nothing more — as does the Korean page.
Wed Sep 9 in Japan
6 games still to start, 3 of them in the open air
Chunichi Dragons at Yomiuri Giants
Tokyo Dome6:00 PM JST · Wed 5:00 AM ET- Records
- 54-71-2 at 67-56-2
- Runs, for and against
- 3.3/3.4 · 3.4/3.1
- Model: home to win
- 64%
Giants, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 6.2
3.2 home, 3.0 away
Under a roof · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
Tokyo Yakult Swallows at YOKOHAMA DeNA BAYSTARS
Yokohama6:00 PM JST · Wed 5:00 AM ET- Records
- 54-67-2 at 57-63-3
- Runs, for and against
- 3.2/3.8 · 3.8/3.7
- Model: home to win
- 56%
BAYSTARS, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 7.3
4.0 home, 3.3 away
74°F · within a rounding error of the night's average, so no adjustment · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
Hiroshima Toyo Carp at Hanshin Tigers
Koshien6:00 PM JST · Wed 5:00 AM ET- Records
- 49-67-4 at 69-52-1
- Runs, for and against
- 3.0/3.7 · 3.7/3.1
- Model: home to win
- 67%
Tigers, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 6.5
3.8 home, 2.7 away
75°F · within a rounding error of the night's average, so no adjustment · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles at Chiba Lotte Marines
ZOZO Marine6:00 PM JST · Wed 5:00 AM ET- Records
- 47-75-1 at 55-62-3
- Runs, for and against
- 3.3/4.0 · 3.5/4.1
- Model: home to win
- 61%
Marines, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 7.6
3.9 home, 3.7 away
73°F · within a rounding error of the night's average, so no adjustment · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
Saitama Seibu Lions at ORIX Buffaloes
Hotto Kobe6:00 PM JST · Wed 5:00 AM ET- Records
- 71-52-3 at 59-65-2
- Runs, for and against
- 3.5/3.2 · 3.4/4.1
- Model: home to win
- 44%
Buffaloes, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 7.1
3.1 home, 4.0 away
No forecast · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters at Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
MIZUHO PayPay6:00 PM JST · Wed 5:00 AM ET- Records
- 71-54-2 at 76-45-3
- Runs, for and against
- 4.1/3.6 · 4.8/3.2
- Model: home to win
- 59%
Hawks, records and home field
- Model: projected runs
- 8.5
4.8 home, 3.7 away
Under a roof · No price published, so no pick and no grade.
What the numbers are built on
- Each club’s scoring rate and the runs it allows, from the league’s own team batting and pitching tables, pulled toward the league average by 10 games. This season NPB is scoring 3.59 runs a side a game.
- Home advantage measured in this league rather than borrowed: home clubs are 396-333 this season, which after pulling toward baseball’s usual figure is worth 3.4 points.
- The temperature at each open-air park, worth 0.15 runs per 10°F, and counted only as the difference from the rest of the night’s board. Sealed parks — Tokyo Dome, Kyocera, Vantelin, PayPay, ES CON — get no weather term. Belluna Dome has a roof and no walls, so it counts as open air.
What is missing, and honest
- No price. Nothing here is a pick, nothing here is graded, and none of it touches the record on the card.
- Ties are real. An NPB game can be drawn after twelve innings, so a tie is left out of the win rate exactly as the league’s own standings do — and the run-line arithmetic used elsewhere on this site, which assumes a game cannot end level, is not applied to this league at all.
- No starting pitcher yet. The card charges an MLB starter’s ERA with most of the runs his side allows. NPB announces its starters, but this page does not read them yet, so a club’s whole staff carries the number.
- No wind. The forecast service does carry it, and it matters more than temperature. Until it is modelled for both countries at once, it is modelled for neither.
A note on the clock. Japan plays at six in the evening, which is five in the morning in New York — before the day’s card is posted at 11:05 AM ET. So the slate above is the next one still to come, and any NPB pick would have to be posted the afternoon before it is played rather than the morning of.
