1-2-0won-lost-push
One card a day, across every sport, whatever the board looks like.
This page is the MLB rows of it. The sign is the record for everything he has posted.
Tue Sep 8
MLB picks, Tue Sep 8
Three posts at most three picks a day across every sport, so most days carry no MLB pick at all. What is here is what was posted before the games started, priced and graded.
1
Over 4.5 runs total, first 5 innings
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves7:15 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 57%
- The market
- 50%
- The line
- -115, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +6.5%
A. Smith-Shawver (7.13 ERA) starts against F. Peralta (4.96 ERA). Scoring rates project 6.4 runs in the first five innings, centred on today's first-five board. 85°F and mostly sunny at the park, worth +0.1 runs in five innings against the rest of the league. Against the posted 4.5, that puts Over 4.5 at 69% and the market at 50%. Our number is 57%, +6.5% above the market, at -115 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 53%.
MLB
2
Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox6:45 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 61%
- The market
- 57%
- The line
- -149, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +3.9%
With the book's margin removed, the market gives Boston Red Sox 57%. Season records and home field put them at 68%, so our number is 61%. 73°F and mostly sunny at the park, worth -0.1 runs against the rest of the league. A game that scores more is a game that is less close, so that reading is in the number above. That is +3.9% above the market, at -149 on DraftKings, a price that pays as if 60%.
MLB
