Three posts at most three picks a day across every sport, so most days carry no MLB pick at all. What is here is what was posted before the games started, priced and graded.
1
Under 4.5 runs total, first 5 innings
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants4:05 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 63%
- The market
- 54%
- The line
- -135, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +9.1%
C. Perdomo (0.90 ERA) starts against M. King (3.00 ERA). Scoring rates project 2.4 runs in the first five innings, centred on today's first-five board. 58°F and 2 at the park, worth -0.1 runs in five innings against the rest of the league. Against the posted 4.5, that puts Under 4.5 at 80% and the market at 54%. Our number is 63%, +9.1% above the market, at -135 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 57%.
MLB · Closing price -140
2
Over 4.5 runs total, first 5 innings
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers1:10 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 57%
- The market
- 53%
- The line
- -130, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +4.1%
A. Sears (4.38 ERA) starts against T. Gordon (5.40 ERA). Scoring rates project 5.9 runs in the first five innings, centred on today's first-five board. Against the posted 4.5, that puts Over 4.5 at 65% and the market at 53%. Our number is 57%, +4.1% above the market, at -130 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 57%.
MLB · Closing price -130
3
Washington Nationals Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals4:05 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 56%
- The market
- 53%
- The line
- -127, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +2.1%
With the book's margin removed, the market gives Washington Nationals 53%. Season records and home field put them at 59%, so our number is 56%. 79°F and cloudy at the park, worth +0.1 runs against the rest of the league. A game that scores more is a game that is less close, so that reading is in the number above. That is +2.1% above the market, at -127 on DraftKings, a price that pays as if 56%.
MLB · Closing price -136
