10-5-0won-lost-push
One card a day, across every sport, whatever the board looks like.
This page is the MLB rows of it. The sign is the record for everything he has posted.
Sun Sep 13
MLB picks, Sun Sep 13
Three posts at most three picks a day across every sport, so most days carry no MLB pick at all. What is here is what was posted before the games started, priced and graded.
1
Over 7 runs total
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs2:20 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 56%
- The market
- 49%
- The line
- -106, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +6.8%
M. Boyd (4.03 ERA) starts against B. Chandler (4.25 ERA). Scoring rates project 9.1 runs, centred on today's board. 72°F and mostly cloudy, wind 12 mph in from centre at the park. Worth -0.3 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 7, that puts Over 7 at 69% and the market at 49%. Our number is 56%, +6.8% above the market, at -106 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 51%.
MLB · Closing price -110
2
Under 8 runs total
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks4:10 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 55%
- The market
- 49%
- The line
- -105, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +6.3%
E. Rodriguez (2.55 ERA) starts against C. Quantrill (2.89 ERA). Scoring rates project 6.1 runs, centred on today's board. Against the posted 8, that puts Under 8 at 67% and the market at 49%. Our number is 55%, +6.3% above the market, at -105 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 51%.
MLB · Closing price -105
3
Over 9 runs total
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals1:35 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 57%
- The market
- 51%
- The line
- -112, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +6.2%
J. Irvin (5.52 ERA) starts against G. Rodriguez (6.28 ERA). Scoring rates project 11.0 runs, centred on today's board. 85°F and cloudy, wind 4 mph across the field at the park. Worth +0.2 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 9, that puts Over 9 at 68% and the market at 51%. Our number is 57%, +6.2% above the market, at -112 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 53%.
MLB · Closing price -112
The board he chose from
Every MLB game Three could price that day, with the market that came closest on each one. He judged 90 MLB prices in all across every market on these games; 5 passed both tests. The card is capped at three across all sports, so most of this list is a pass — and the reason each one was a pass is the last column.
Swipe the table sideways for the numbers.
| Side | Market | Our number | Market | Price | Edge | Bar | Verdict |
|---|
| Over 7Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs | runs total | 56% | 49% | -106 | +6.8% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Under 8Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks | runs total | 55% | 49% | -105 | +6.3% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Over 9Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals | runs total | 57% | 51% | -112 | +6.2% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Under 8New York Mets at New York Yankees | runs total | 56% | 52% | -119 | +4.1% | 3.0% | Cleared, not top three |
| Over 9Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers | runs total | 53% | 49% | -105 | +4.0% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Tampa Bay RaysHouston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays | Moneyline | 57% | 55% | -136 | +2.2% | 2.0% | Cleared, not top three |
| San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants | Moneyline | 56% | 54% | -131 | +1.9% | 2.0% | Gap too thin |
| Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline | 43% | 42% | +129 | +1.7% | 2.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 9Seattle Mariners at Athletics | runs total | 51% | 49% | -107 | +1.7% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 8.5Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals | runs total | 50% | 48% | -103 | +1.4% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins | Moneyline | 48% | 47% | +105 | +1.4% | 2.0% | Chance too low |
| Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers | Moneyline | 64% | 63% | -194 | +1.3% | 2.0% | Gap too thin |
| Under 7.5Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox | runs total | 54% | 52% | -122 | +1.2% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 9Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves | runs total | 50% | 48% | -103 | +1.1% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins | Moneyline | 57% | 56% | -143 | +1.0% | 2.0% | Gap too thin |
Our number is Three’s own chance for that side. Market is the consensus with the book’s margin taken back out. Edge is the gap between the two, and Bar is the gap that market had to clear — each market carries its own, because a total scatters more than a moneyline. A side also has to reach 55% on our own number, so there are two ways to miss the card and the verdict says which one it was. Nothing here is graded: a bet Three did not place is not part of his record, so the board states what he thought and stops.
