12-9-1won-lost-push
One card a day, across every sport, whatever the board looks like.
This page is the MLB rows of it. The sign is the record for everything he has posted.
Wed Sep 16
MLB picks, Wed Sep 16
Three posts at most three picks a day across every sport, so most days carry no MLB pick at all. What is here is what was posted before the games started, priced and graded.
1
Under 11 runs total
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies8:40 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 59%
- The market
- 49%
- The line
- -104, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +10.6%
M. Adams (3.38 ERA) starts against R. Ray (3.57 ERA). Scoring rates project 7.6 runs, centred on today's board. 80°F and cloudy, wind 16 mph in from centre at the park. Worth -0.4 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 11, that puts Under 11 at 79% and the market at 49%. Our number is 59%, +10.6% above the market, at -104 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 51%.
MLB · Closing price -114
2
Over 8 runs total
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals1:15 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 56%
- The market
- 50%
- The line
- -111, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +5.7%
M. Liberatore (5.53 ERA) starts against A. Molina (5.24 ERA). Scoring rates project 9.8 runs, centred on today's board. 88°F and partly sunny, wind 2 mph across the field at the park. Worth +0.2 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 8, that puts Over 8 at 67% and the market at 50%. Our number is 56%, +5.7% above the market, at -111 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 53%.
MLB · Closing price -115
3
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays6:40 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 65%
- The market
- 62%
- The line
- -186, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +2.9%
With the book's margin removed, the market gives Tampa Bay Rays 62%. Season records and home field put them at 71%, so our number is 65%. That is +2.9% above the market, at -186 on DraftKings, a price that pays as if 65%.
MLB · Closing price -191
