18-15-1won-lost-push
One card a day, across every sport, whatever the board looks like.
This page is the MLB rows of it. The sign is the record for everything he has posted.
Sun Sep 20
MLB picks, Sun Sep 20
Three posts at most three picks a day across every sport, so most days carry no MLB pick at all. What is here is what was posted before the games started, priced and graded.
1
Over 7 runs total
Athletics at Cleveland Guardians1:40 PM ETLost- Our number
- 55%
- The market
- 50%
- The line
- -109, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +5.6%
G. Williams (3.78 ERA) starts against J. Perkins (6.14 ERA). Scoring rates project 8.7 runs, centred on today's board. 68°F and cloudy, wind 5 mph in from centre at the park. Worth -0.2 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 7, that puts Over 7 at 66% and the market at 50%. Our number is 55%, +5.6% above the market, at -109 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 52%.
MLB · Closing price -107 · Final ATH 0, CLE 1 — 1 runs
2
Under 7.5 runs total
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers2:35 PM ETLost- Our number
- 56%
- The market
- 53%
- The line
- -123, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +3.0%
J. deGrom (3.79 ERA) starts against S. Miles (2.65 ERA). Scoring rates project 6.2 runs, centred on today's board. Against the posted 7.5, that puts Under 7.5 at 61% and the market at 53%. Our number is 56%, +3.0% above the market, at -123 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 55%.
MLB · Closing price -123 · Final TOR 7, TEX 2 — 9 runs
The board he chose from
Every MLB game Three could price that day, with the market that came closest on each one. He judged 90 MLB prices in all across every market on these games; 2 passed both tests. The card is capped at three across all sports, so most of this list is a pass — and the reason each one was a pass is the last column.
Swipe the table sideways for the numbers.
| Side | Market | Our number | Market | Price | Edge | Bar | Verdict |
|---|
| Over 7Athletics at Cleveland Guardians | runs total | 55% | 50% | -109 | +5.6% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves at Houston Astros | Moneyline | 47% | 42% | +129 | +5.1% | 2.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 8Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox | runs total | 53% | 48% | -101 | +5.1% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 9.5Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds | runs total | 54% | 50% | -109 | +4.1% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 8Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels | runs total | 54% | 51% | -113 | +3.6% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 10.5Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies | runs total | 51% | 48% | -102 | +3.2% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 8.5Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals | runs total | 55% | 52% | -117 | +3.1% | 3.0% | Gap too thin |
| Under 7.5Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers | runs total | 56% | 53% | -123 | +3.0% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Pittsburgh PiratesKansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates | Moneyline | 54% | 52% | -118 | +2.5% | 2.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 7.5Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles | runs total | 51% | 49% | -105 | +2.3% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 7.5Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets | runs total | 52% | 50% | -108 | +2.2% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 8New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks | runs total | 52% | 51% | -112 | +1.9% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 7.5Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | runs total | 50% | 48% | -103 | +1.5% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| San Diego Padres -1.5Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres | run line | 40% | 39% | +148 | +1.3% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers | run line | 55% | 54% | -127 | +1.1% | 3.0% | Gap too thin |
Our number is Three’s own chance for that side. Market is the consensus with the book’s margin taken back out. Edge is the gap between the two, and Bar is the gap that market had to clear — each market carries its own, because a total scatters more than a moneyline. A side also has to reach 55% on our own number, so there are two ways to miss the card and the verdict says which one it was. Nothing here is graded: a bet Three did not place is not part of his record, so the board states what he thought and stops.
