18-15-1won-lost-push
One card a day, across every sport, whatever the board looks like.
This page is the MLB rows of it. The sign is the record for everything he has posted.
Tue Sep 22
MLB picks, Tue Sep 22
Three posts at most three picks a day across every sport, so most days carry no MLB pick at all. What is here is what was posted before the games started, priced and graded.
1
Over 6.5 runs total
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs7:40 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 58%
- The market
- 52%
- The line
- -119, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +5.9%
K. Gausman (4.55 ERA) starts against J. Junk (4.50 ERA). Scoring rates project 8.7 runs, centred on today's board. 63°F and intermittent clouds, wind 10 mph in from centre at the park. Worth -0.3 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 6.5, that puts Over 6.5 at 69% and the market at 52%. Our number is 58%, +5.9% above the market, at -119 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 54%.
MLB · Closing price -115
2
Under 8.5 runs total
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers10:10 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 57%
- The market
- 51%
- The line
- -114, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +5.9%
Y. Yamamoto (2.51 ERA) starts against M. King (3.03 ERA). Scoring rates project 6.4 runs, centred on today's board. 73°F and mostly clear, wind 5 mph out to centre at the park. Worth +0.3 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 8.5, that puts Under 8.5 at 68% and the market at 51%. Our number is 57%, +5.9% above the market, at -114 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 53%.
MLB · Closing price -117
3
Over 8 runs total
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers6:40 PM ETAwaiting grade- Our number
- 56%
- The market
- 52%
- The line
- -118, DraftKings
- Edge vs market
- +4.2%
D. Anderson (3.62 ERA) starts against J. Kent (6.40 ERA). Scoring rates project 9.5 runs, centred on today's board. 63°F and mostly cloudy, wind 10 mph out to centre at the park. Worth +0.1 runs against the rest of the league. Against the posted 8, that puts Over 8 at 64% and the market at 52%. Our number is 56%, +4.2% above the market, at -118 on DraftKings. That price pays as if 54%.
MLB · Closing price -119
The board he chose from
Every MLB game Three could price that day, with the market that came closest on each one. He judged 96 MLB prices in all across every market on these games; 4 passed both tests. The card is capped at three across all sports, so most of this list is a pass — and the reason each one was a pass is the last column.
Swipe the table sideways for the numbers.
| Side | Market | Our number | Market | Price | Edge | Bar | Verdict |
|---|
| Over 6.5Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | runs total | 58% | 52% | -119 | +5.9% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Under 8.5San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | runs total | 57% | 51% | -114 | +5.9% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Under 6.5Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | runs total | 53% | 47% | +102 | +5.1% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 7Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | runs total | 54% | 50% | -108 | +4.6% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 8Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers | runs total | 56% | 52% | -118 | +4.2% | 3.0% | On the card |
| Over 7Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | runs total | 56% | 53% | -123 | +3.8% | 3.0% | Cleared, not top three |
| Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | Moneyline | 48% | 45% | +114 | +3.7% | 2.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 11Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | runs total | 54% | 51% | -115 | +3.3% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 6.5Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | runs total | 54% | 51% | -112 | +3.1% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | Moneyline | 42% | 39% | +143 | +2.4% | 2.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 7.5Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants | runs total | 51% | 49% | -105 | +2.3% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Over 7Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | runs total | 55% | 53% | -122 | +2.2% | 3.0% | Gap too thin |
| Under 8Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals | runs total | 53% | 51% | -115 | +1.7% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Atlanta Braves -1.5Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | run line | 47% | 46% | +109 | +1.4% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Under 9.5Los Angeles Angels at Athletics | runs total | 53% | 52% | -118 | +1.3% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
| Texas Rangers -1.5New York Mets at Texas Rangers | run line | 38% | 37% | +157 | +1.0% | 3.0% | Chance too low |
Our number is Three’s own chance for that side. Market is the consensus with the book’s margin taken back out. Edge is the gap between the two, and Bar is the gap that market had to clear — each market carries its own, because a total scatters more than a moneyline. A side also has to reach 55% on our own number, so there are two ways to miss the card and the verdict says which one it was. Nothing here is graded: a bet Three did not place is not part of his record, so the board states what he thought and stops.
